In the study, just published in PLoS Computational Biology, the authors predict the obesity epidemic will also plateau around this time. That is, 42% obesity rate is the predicted maximum level at which point an equilibrium will be reached.
The authors have this to say about their prediction:
While not great, this is a much more optimistic estimate than 100%.
That is certainly true.
If their prediction is correct, it would suggest a fairly gradual rise in obesity rates over the next 40 years, from the approximately 34% of the US population that is currently obese.
But how did they arrive at such a grand conclusion?
I can assure you 80′s era Michael J Fox cruising in a DeLorean were not part of the methodology.
Instead, the paper’s methodology had a little bit of…
with a hint of….
and finally, a dab of…
Have a wonderful weekend,
Hill, A., Rand, D., Nowak, M., & Christakis, N. (2010). Infectious Disease Modeling of Social Contagion in Networks PLoS Computational Biology, 6 (11) DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1000968