Whether environmental modellers are wrong

[This is a comment invited by Issues in Science and Technology as a reply to the article “When All Models Are Wrong” in their Winter 2014 issue. The article is not online there but has

Category: boxquote, climatemodels, decisionmaking, parameterisation, Policy, statistics, uncertainty | Leave a comment

Pause for thought

Ed Hawkins, Doug McNeall and I have just had a commentary published called Pause for Thought. It’s part of a Nature Focus on the slowdown in global surface warming, which includes six commentaries plus new research by …

Category: Blogging, climatemodels, plainenglish, scicomm, uncertainty | Leave a comment

Nine Lessons and Carols in Communicating Climate Uncertainty

About a month ago I was invited to represent the Cabot Institute at the All Parliamentary Party Climate Change Group (APPCCG) meeting on “Communicating Risk and Uncertainty around Climate Change”. All Party Groups are groups of MPs and Lords with …

Category: Events, risk, scicomm, statistics, uncertainty | Leave a comment

No need to worry about Greenland’s waterslides

We’ve had a new study published about the slippery slopes of Greenland. If we’re right they’re not as slippery – and therefore as worrying – as we first thought.

Greenland’s ice sheet is not simply a giant ice cube, inert …

Category: ice2sea, icesheetmodels, news, parameterisation, plainenglish, sealevel, statistics | Leave a comment

Climate scientists must not advocate particular policies

A long debate about whether climate scientists should publicly state their values and political beliefs. Continue reading »

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Debrief from Cheltenham

I’m at home, groggy but happy after our Cheltenham Science Festival event yesterday, “Can we trust climate models?”. It was exhausting, fun, exciting, and long…

I’ll write about the content of the event in future posts, but I wanted to …

Category: climatemodels, Events, ice2sea, scicomm | Leave a comment

From Ice to High Seas

My project ice2sea is currently in the news. For example, the BBC: ‘Best estimate’ for impact of melting ice on sea level rise.

Ice2sea is an enormous project, involving 24 institutions (such as universities and meteorological institutes), which were …

Category: ice2sea, news, sealevel | Leave a comment

Can we trust climate models?


I’m a climate modeller. Why would I invite a climate sceptic to the Cheltenham Science Festival to have a public discussion called “Can we trust climate models?” Why would I complicate things further by inviting a UK government adviser?

Ever …

Category: decisionmaking, news, scicomm | Leave a comment

Possible futures

This is the final part of a series of introductory posts about the principles of climate modelling. Others in the series: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4

The final big question in this series is:

How do we predict

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Junk (filter) science

This is part 4 of a series of introductory posts about the principles of climate modelling. Others in the series: 1 | 2 | 3

In the previous post I said there will always be limits to our scientific understanding …

Category: Bayesian, definitions, introductory, statistics | Leave a comment